Wafer Fab Model

Our wafer fab model forecasts semiconductor equipment sales via a bottoms-up approach, where wafer capacity and process node requirements drive equipment sales. Process requirements are modeled with a detailed layer-by-layer flow for advanced logic. Critical specifications for leading edge and next generation logic processes and lithography tools are enumerated in a database, including 1.4nm-class processes and high-NA EUV.

The model includes the following:

  • Wafer capacity for leading edge logic major nodes out to 2027.

  • Lithography equipment sales forecasts through 2027 for advanced logic major nodes (processes using EUV lithography) by model, units, and revenue, broken down by chipmaker and process node.

  • Layer by layer lithography requirements for advanced logic major nodes, by technology (EUV, ArFi, KrF, etc.), broken down by chipmaker and process node. From 1st use of EUV through 1.4nm-equivalent including finFET, GAA, and backside power delivery where applicable.

  • Wafer capacity forecasts through 2027 for advanced logic and leading-edge memory chipmakers (10-nm class DRAM), by major process node.

  • Wafer fab equipment sales through 2027 for major equipment segments including lithography, deposition, etch, wafer track (coat, bake, develop), and metrology/inspection.

    • Including all major equipment vendors Applied Materials, ASML, Lam Research, KLA, Screen, ASMI, Kokusai Electric and Tokyo Electron.

    • Sales revenue broken down by end-use segment: leading edge logic, specialty (trailing edge logic, analog, power, rf, etc), DRAM, NAND/non-volatile.

  • Aggregate specialty equipment sales revenue by equipment segment through 2027.

  • Annual equipment capital expenditure by chipmaker and process, forecast through 2027.

  • Equipment cost per major node per 10k wspm (wafer starts per month).

  • Detailed lithography tool database including model, throughput, uptime, rework rate, release date, and ASP including upcoming next generation tools.

  • Includes forecast on effect of pattern shaping (Applied Material’s Sculpta tool) and directed-self assembly on EUV lithography requirements.

The data is provided for 2023 to 2027 on an annual basis.

The model will also include one year of quarterly updates, an initial call with SemiAnalysis to explain the model and methodologies employed, as well as subsequent ad-hoc calls to answer any questions that arise from the use of the models.