The regulations are like swiss cheese, but these holes will be patched up
It’s more of a war on timing than on tech supremacy. What China has achieved now was rooted 20 years ago when it sent millions of top talented STEM students to US. What US is doing now will affect to a certain degree how much further China can advance 10 years from today but can’t stop Chinese military from using what is most advanced tech available on the market now. The irony part is TSMC and other fellow Taiwan semi manufacturers do not seem to be at all concerned that it’s assisting with making the weapons that can eliminate their own island. For them a customer is a customer, a dollar is a dollar, doesn’t matter where it come from.
Sanctions are never well designed . Fine if you want to cripple someone not plugged in. They aren't supposed to have repercussions on the imposer. Typically Treasury and State are fairly clueless about the things they end up doing. It ends up being whack a mole.
Sanctions are a temporary set back. The Chinese were expecting them a long ago. All they need is keep rebuilding the supply chain and then they will have to venues available to them.
1-Supply chain has become as advanced as the west (but with high cost of production) and can build anything the west and allies can. Here they will try to lower their cost by increasing their economy of scale. How are they going to do that? Well, the US showed them with a nice recipe: Claim National security issue and outlaw buying ships from outside China (the chips growth engine of the world). China will no longer spend 400 billion in importing from the outside and all will be domestic and that' economy of scale enough to further more R&D at the expense of the west who will be spending almost nothing on R&D unless the US government comes to the rescue (but that's a temporary fix for the next 2-3 years). Korea and Japan will definitely lose their shirt on that and their governments can't support their industries and once they abandon some of their production, China will pick up the slack and produce even more. China also can stop US from financing their semiconductor industry easily by pulling the plug on buying US debt.
2-Develop enough the supply chain to have enough leverage to choke the west and force them to abandon immediately the sanctions.
No matter what ,at the end , it's like fighting gravity, you can win initially but gravity always wins at the end.
So what is the solution for the west and mainly for the US here? Until there is a change in mentality and change the paradigm from trying to crush your opponent to work towards the same goal that is a better future for all of mankind, then, the US is doomed to fail.
The assumption of the US, is that western people have the only system that can produce innovation. Other nations can't innovate as much as the west. Despite many facts proving the contrary: great companies in China, China produces 10 times more STEMs/ year , more patents/year, most high tech patents the west has have Chinese names on them. Hmm...Who knew? the Asian man actually can invent something.
But we will keep media dominance in the west and we will say China stole our jobs.
Thanks again, as always.
Anything on the new optical chip fab under construction in Beijing?