Low utilization rates, countless divested assets, cut R&D and capex, and still doesn't make money in the greatest semiconductor boom of all time.
Playing up on nationalism while having their largest fab and ongoing investment in Singapore.
I am more of a business side and not technical. I did some more research on GFS, at a decent valuation they have a good chance to be in line behind Samsung and TSMC. Even a third in line in this business all bad. Key is how fast they lose value in a glut OR how do they use the current momentum to build a company that will reinvent before the glut. You cannot buy and forget this name. But you can have a decent ROI in next 24 months.
Good write up. I have also reviewed the quarterly transcript. I don't see them going gang busters, however the timing is in their favor, with all the euphoria in the semi's demand/supply saga, they can run on full utilizations and pay for a lot of their capex and build capacity in the current bull. It will be interesting to see how they execute once there is a glut of chips, which will eventually happen. The future of semis is undoubtedly bright and it will compete with the top 2 TSMC and Samsung, they could build themselves a good niche customer base, execution and balance sheet discipline could be the key here. I would go long at a valuation in low 20B's.
Intel 4, I hear good things, 3 should be a good follow up with some new material introductions, but nothing crazy. Then we have 20A and 18A which are both more shrinks with some large changes. Just too hard to judge progress on all of these nodes. Im tracking as close as I can. Execution is key, a 6 month delay on a node could have a knockon affect, they could execute flawlessly, they could have 6 months delay on each node which brings 20A back 18 months in total.
I am more of a business side and not technical. I did some more research on GFS, at a decent valuation they have a good chance to be in line behind Samsung and TSMC. Even a third in line in this business all bad. Key is how fast they lose value in a glut OR how do they use the current momentum to build a company that will reinvent before the glut. You cannot buy and forget this name. But you can have a decent ROI in next 24 months.
Good write up. I have also reviewed the quarterly transcript. I don't see them going gang busters, however the timing is in their favor, with all the euphoria in the semi's demand/supply saga, they can run on full utilizations and pay for a lot of their capex and build capacity in the current bull. It will be interesting to see how they execute once there is a glut of chips, which will eventually happen. The future of semis is undoubtedly bright and it will compete with the top 2 TSMC and Samsung, they could build themselves a good niche customer base, execution and balance sheet discipline could be the key here. I would go long at a valuation in low 20B's.
When do you think INTC could catch up with them?
Intel 4, I hear good things, 3 should be a good follow up with some new material introductions, but nothing crazy. Then we have 20A and 18A which are both more shrinks with some large changes. Just too hard to judge progress on all of these nodes. Im tracking as close as I can. Execution is key, a 6 month delay on a node could have a knockon affect, they could execute flawlessly, they could have 6 months delay on each node which brings 20A back 18 months in total.
Great Write up
Thanks Bob Saget