Restricting China is a bad idea. We restricted them from the International space station and they built their own two decades later. Their space station looks like an apple store inside while the ISS looks more like garbage disposal. The Chinese station will be the only space station humanity will have as the ISS is nearing retirement in the next 3-4 years.
Soon with their cost efficiency, they will produce EUV lithography machines like pancakes. And we will be able to buy them in Costco for 599.99$ at Christmas season.
Restricting China is really short sighted. We need to get them integrated in the supply chain before they build their own and making ours unprofitable.
They are already doing it independently with or without us. Even before semiconductor sanctions started a few years ago. It was enshrined many times for many industries. Many industries have partnered then eventually got completely kicked out of the space.
You have a very limited memory of sanctions. The ones you know about are from loud mouth Trump. Obama and Bush were very quiet about it but they stopped tech transfers so that the Chinese can't build super computers. If I remember they stopped Specialized high end Xeon processor from Intel. They went around it and built a different tech and got the fastest super computers a few years later. What we see from the Chinese is adaptation.
They foresaw the US keeping on restricting them in the future. They planned ahead. At all levels and in multiple directions. They produce about 6 million STEMS a year compared to about "0.4" million in US. Most of which are Asian by the way. We made this as a fight but in the long run they will win. Just do the math. In 10 years they would have graduated 60 million stems compared to 4 million in the US. With that many STEMS a huge portion of the supply chain will be there making outsourcing to China the only way western companies can stay afloat.
The economic and trade measures are in retaliation to Chinas massive number of increasingly non-tariff trade restrictions against the USA for the last two decades.
The measures would end tomorrow if China ended these restrictions
When a country engages in restrictions against the USA in every industry. Including banning basically every single USA social platform, and news which destroyed the transfer of ideas and thoughts between the two nations. Don’t have a surprise pikachu face, when USA retaliates.
The majority of STEM graduates are not Asian in the USA. The overwhelming majority are white or Hispanic. USA stem graduates are at 800,000 not 400,000.
"every single USA social platform" that's not export products. Th transfer of thoughts and ideas are one way and the Chinese closed down the importation of foreign subversion (American). You are right about the other stuff. Chinese are defending their home turf, should be expected and applauded
Figure 1 of your link indicates that only 20% of STEM grads in the US are foreign-born, of whom 40% are Chinese, and that 90% of Chinese grads were still in the US 10 years after graduating.
The first is for those who graduated and the second is for the enrolling (aka to be graduating in the upcoming years). It's a staggering number about 400k are foreigners.
If you go higher up in degrees like masters and PHD. Those foreigners graduating represent more than half of STEMs in the US.
Do you see the trend?
Foreigners will stay as long as it benefits them or get completely integrated into the society.
But now there is another issue. Some foreigners don't feel safe with the rise of populism and they're literally getting killed regularly. In some places there are rises up to 700% in deadly assaults against them.
Don't forget Chinese Beidou PGS. We shut down their Satellite tracker when they fired their missiles near Taiwan, they got pissed and they created their own GPS, better than ours now.
No its not. Maybe you didn't notice but most technological advances in china happened because they just stole it from Western countries. They very good at it. They even gonna start copying space x with reusable rockets. Just check how many companies go out of business because they moved factories to China and China started producing same stuff but cheaper.
If stealing was so easy and can make any country become an economic superpower then by all means I'll encourage all poor countries to steal and build space ships to Mars.
Remember, China was poorer than 50 of 52 African countries in the 80's (GDP per capita) and those African countries were dirt poor and ravaged by famine, corruption and wars in those days. I am telling you, if they're succeeding, it's because of something else. Determination, collaboration and insane vision. Look this up:
I think at the low end of the consumer market for eg earphones, there will some form of copying especially for those factories who produce products from western customers.
But at the high end it is not easy. Technology transfer is inevitable for example, Chinese nationals who work in western countries, and then go back to China to work there.
The US also did a whole lot of copying from England when England was Nbr 1.
If there is no patent then it's fair game. If you sit on your behind because of a patent then you'll stop innovating. Patents have expiry dates and open the product copier to lower the costs for the people who couldn't afford it initially like in India, China and Africa.
Thanks for the kind compliment to the Chinese space station. But I am sure, it will looks like "garbage disposal" from time being as more and more equipment and experiment will be brought and conduct on it.
Thank you, but it has nothing to do with kind remarks it's a fact and I admire what they achieved. I doubt will become garbage disposal. They're adding more modules and the design is made in a way that it can't easily become messy. At the ISS they can tidy things up but a big portion of their time is spent patching and repairing the station. It's just a miracle it stayed afloat that long with all the problems they had.
Intel is WELLLLLL ahead of SMIC, so they are only "third behind TSMC & Samsung" if talking primarily pure-play foundries, and even THAT doesn't make a ton of sense after IDM. 🤷
SMIC really did something spectacular here. They copied TSMC N7, which doesn't use EUV. They didn't even copy it good enough to implement scaled logic or bitcell memory (hence why its on a mining ASIC). And they did it 5 years later when TSMC are two nodes ahead. Don't be fooled into thinking the Chinese did something special, they are just copying and pretending they are innovating.
No, it's more than than, we are talking about the most complex techno in the world. Of course, they'll take what they can, like all powers do (do not forget that tsmc or smic are both ethnic chineese) and that china is the first patent producer in the world. Developing those things is the very complexe an takes times. The west had a lot of time after the war and worked with japan and others. China didn't have that luxury, they have to do it fast, they can't afford to wait 20 years and after all, it is a free market. Chineese average IQ is very high, they'll succeed in mastering it. I think a cooperation between china and the us is the best thing that can happen for the world.
Blocking sensible tech, is a serious threat to global security. Once again, people respect nations that are going forward in technologie. US and China a more closer than we think and i'm sure the world want to see both countries finding better ways to undestand each other. I don't think china's raise will generate us decline. For all great countries, destabilisation comes from inside more than from outside.
Yes. Years behind, but they've had targeted corporate espionage including hacks and bribed employees directed at ASML. It could break through quicker than many imagine due to those efforts.
Do you have any idea how nonsense this is? It's not like ASML builds EUV from ground up. ASML uses thousands of suppliers to build these machines. They buy from Carl Zeiss the specialized lenses to produce their lasers. And there is absolutely no use of corporate espionage in copying this. You need the scientific and engineering knowledge to make this happen. This rhetoric of corporate espionage is coming from the minds of people who don't know squat about manufacturing.
ASML followed a certain direction to produce these EUV machines. China is probably pursuing a different direction or even a new paradigm. A new paradigm will be free from any legacy compatibility. And might prove groundbreaking.
That's funny you mention that when there direct proof of a firm doing corporate espionage on ASML and their supply chain. It take a lot of engineering even with corporate espionage. This has been proven in European courts. There's no point in pretending it's not real, it's been proven.
BS again (ASML directly denies it, it's a never ending propaganda against China), read this and don't let your personal feelings towards the Chinese get into the way of good analysis:
Remember there is no amount of corporate espionage that make you build an EUV machine. Wake the hell up, you think they can the suppliers and the expertise by stealing a digital blue print and then 3D print an EUV machine? Please.
Funny you link the thing about them not wanting to lable the Chinese company ad Chinese corporate espionage because they want to play nice with the Chinese government. Here's a quote fr their latest annual report.
"Early in 2021, we became aware of reports that a company associated with XTAL Inc., against which ASML had obtained a damage award for trade secret misappropriation in 2019 in the USA, was actively marketing products in China that could potentially infringe on ASML’s IP rights"
They are committing corporate espionage. Obviously you can't build it with just internal data about the tools... But it does help. And it accelerates their plans greatly to decade rather than decades
I looked at the report and it's the same thing they said in their press statement. They're not accusing "CHINA", they say potentially some companies might infringe on some patents. It's consistent with what they said before.
And what's up with when a company of Chinese origin is accused of something we all say it's China but when an American company is accused of something we just isolate it to that company.
Dylan, don't let your original programming of whatever perception about China from you upbringing and entourage get in the way of very good analysis. You're a smart man, you can exceed your original programming. Or I could be wrong and that it's hard wired in you (what I call terminal phase) and there is no way but keep on doubling and tripling down on your perception.
If it is comparable to TSMC 7nm node, isn’t it also comparable to Intel 10nm? Why is it better than everything made in the USA? Also, do you have transistor densities, or performance numbers?
There are no foundry Intel 10nm or Intel 7 process node based chips commercially available. The most advanced commercial available foundry process in the US or Europe is GlobalFoundries 12nm.
Densities I have, but it's behind the TechInsights paywall.
Intel Cannon Lake chips is 10nm which came out in May 2018 and discontinued February 28, 2020, which was replaced by 10nm Ice Lake chips in September 2019. And then 10nm Tiger Lake chips and 10nm Alder Lake chips in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Maybe get your information right before posting. And Intel 10 transistor density is around 100. SMIC N+2 so-called 7nm is around the same transistor density. Also, I suggest check your information before posting.
Intel 10nm node based chips are literally on the shelf for sell right now so how is it not "commercially available"?
Like you said Intel is an Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM) so they design and manufacture. How do you think Intel produced those CPU chips? They don't not outsourced their CPU chip production to pure play foundries like GlobalFoundries, TSMC, SMIC. They produce using their own foundries which means if there are 10nm node Intel CPU chips for sell now, they must have a foundry making 10nm node chips. And those Intel foundries are literally in Arizona. The only thing you can say is Intel has not offered its 10nm node foundry process to outside fabless clients.
You literally just answered it. It's IDM. The article specifically says *foundry*.
Intel Arizona is making chips for internal designs, not any foundry designs that are commercially available. In the future they hope to, but doesn't exist today. As such the most advanced commercially available foundry process is 1. TSMC, 2. Samsung, 3. SMIC, 4. Global Foundries.
Foundry means you make other companies designs. Intel isn't doing that today on their 10nm/7 process, or at least for commercially available chips.
Restricting China is a bad idea. We restricted them from the International space station and they built their own two decades later. Their space station looks like an apple store inside while the ISS looks more like garbage disposal. The Chinese station will be the only space station humanity will have as the ISS is nearing retirement in the next 3-4 years.
Soon with their cost efficiency, they will produce EUV lithography machines like pancakes. And we will be able to buy them in Costco for 599.99$ at Christmas season.
Restricting China is really short sighted. We need to get them integrated in the supply chain before they build their own and making ours unprofitable.
They are already doing it independently with or without us. Even before semiconductor sanctions started a few years ago. It was enshrined many times for many industries. Many industries have partnered then eventually got completely kicked out of the space.
You have a very limited memory of sanctions. The ones you know about are from loud mouth Trump. Obama and Bush were very quiet about it but they stopped tech transfers so that the Chinese can't build super computers. If I remember they stopped Specialized high end Xeon processor from Intel. They went around it and built a different tech and got the fastest super computers a few years later. What we see from the Chinese is adaptation.
They foresaw the US keeping on restricting them in the future. They planned ahead. At all levels and in multiple directions. They produce about 6 million STEMS a year compared to about "0.4" million in US. Most of which are Asian by the way. We made this as a fight but in the long run they will win. Just do the math. In 10 years they would have graduated 60 million stems compared to 4 million in the US. With that many STEMS a huge portion of the supply chain will be there making outsourcing to China the only way western companies can stay afloat.
The economic and trade measures are in retaliation to Chinas massive number of increasingly non-tariff trade restrictions against the USA for the last two decades.
The measures would end tomorrow if China ended these restrictions
When a country engages in restrictions against the USA in every industry. Including banning basically every single USA social platform, and news which destroyed the transfer of ideas and thoughts between the two nations. Don’t have a surprise pikachu face, when USA retaliates.
The majority of STEM graduates are not Asian in the USA. The overwhelming majority are white or Hispanic. USA stem graduates are at 800,000 not 400,000.
"every single USA social platform" that's not export products. Th transfer of thoughts and ideas are one way and the Chinese closed down the importation of foreign subversion (American). You are right about the other stuff. Chinese are defending their home turf, should be expected and applauded
Read this congress report and shatter that illusion of the US producing American born STEMs, 400k are foreigners 164k of which are Chinese:
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11347
There aren't 800k STEMs in the US. I researched more and the last Data shows 568k of which according to congress report.
Figure 1 of your link indicates that only 20% of STEM grads in the US are foreign-born, of whom 40% are Chinese, and that 90% of Chinese grads were still in the US 10 years after graduating.
The first is for those who graduated and the second is for the enrolling (aka to be graduating in the upcoming years). It's a staggering number about 400k are foreigners.
If you go higher up in degrees like masters and PHD. Those foreigners graduating represent more than half of STEMs in the US.
Do you see the trend?
Foreigners will stay as long as it benefits them or get completely integrated into the society.
But now there is another issue. Some foreigners don't feel safe with the rise of populism and they're literally getting killed regularly. In some places there are rises up to 700% in deadly assaults against them.
We'll see how this evolves.
Don't forget Chinese Beidou PGS. We shut down their Satellite tracker when they fired their missiles near Taiwan, they got pissed and they created their own GPS, better than ours now.
No its not. Maybe you didn't notice but most technological advances in china happened because they just stole it from Western countries. They very good at it. They even gonna start copying space x with reusable rockets. Just check how many companies go out of business because they moved factories to China and China started producing same stuff but cheaper.
If stealing was so easy and can make any country become an economic superpower then by all means I'll encourage all poor countries to steal and build space ships to Mars.
Remember, China was poorer than 50 of 52 African countries in the 80's (GDP per capita) and those African countries were dirt poor and ravaged by famine, corruption and wars in those days. I am telling you, if they're succeeding, it's because of something else. Determination, collaboration and insane vision. Look this up:
https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3185309/chinas-famous-cable-girl-returns-help-remote
I think at the low end of the consumer market for eg earphones, there will some form of copying especially for those factories who produce products from western customers.
But at the high end it is not easy. Technology transfer is inevitable for example, Chinese nationals who work in western countries, and then go back to China to work there.
The US also did a whole lot of copying from England when England was Nbr 1.
If there is no patent then it's fair game. If you sit on your behind because of a patent then you'll stop innovating. Patents have expiry dates and open the product copier to lower the costs for the people who couldn't afford it initially like in India, China and Africa.
I really love the cliché that everyone stress China STEALS everything.
Consider why there is no success Coca-Cola copycat in China?
Why there is no successful McDonald's KFC copycat in China?
Thanks for the kind compliment to the Chinese space station. But I am sure, it will looks like "garbage disposal" from time being as more and more equipment and experiment will be brought and conduct on it.
Thank you, but it has nothing to do with kind remarks it's a fact and I admire what they achieved. I doubt will become garbage disposal. They're adding more modules and the design is made in a way that it can't easily become messy. At the ISS they can tidy things up but a big portion of their time is spent patching and repairing the station. It's just a miracle it stayed afloat that long with all the problems they had.
TSMC N7 is the new 'everything tastes like chicken'
All Chinese media and social media delete and block SMIC 7nm News and post.
Not surprising given SMIC has tried to hide the fact they have this technology.
I tried to put news on a jpg image in a Chinese investment website but they still find it and block me. lol
Intel is WELLLLLL ahead of SMIC, so they are only "third behind TSMC & Samsung" if talking primarily pure-play foundries, and even THAT doesn't make a ton of sense after IDM. 🤷
SMIC really did something spectacular here. They copied TSMC N7, which doesn't use EUV. They didn't even copy it good enough to implement scaled logic or bitcell memory (hence why its on a mining ASIC). And they did it 5 years later when TSMC are two nodes ahead. Don't be fooled into thinking the Chinese did something special, they are just copying and pretending they are innovating.
No, it's more than than, we are talking about the most complex techno in the world. Of course, they'll take what they can, like all powers do (do not forget that tsmc or smic are both ethnic chineese) and that china is the first patent producer in the world. Developing those things is the very complexe an takes times. The west had a lot of time after the war and worked with japan and others. China didn't have that luxury, they have to do it fast, they can't afford to wait 20 years and after all, it is a free market. Chineese average IQ is very high, they'll succeed in mastering it. I think a cooperation between china and the us is the best thing that can happen for the world.
Blocking sensible tech, is a serious threat to global security. Once again, people respect nations that are going forward in technologie. US and China a more closer than we think and i'm sure the world want to see both countries finding better ways to undestand each other. I don't think china's raise will generate us decline. For all great countries, destabilisation comes from inside more than from outside.
Are there any homegrown efforts to develop EUV? What is China's plan to keep up with advancements if they don't have access to EUV?
Yes. Years behind, but they've had targeted corporate espionage including hacks and bribed employees directed at ASML. It could break through quicker than many imagine due to those efforts.
Do you have any idea how nonsense this is? It's not like ASML builds EUV from ground up. ASML uses thousands of suppliers to build these machines. They buy from Carl Zeiss the specialized lenses to produce their lasers. And there is absolutely no use of corporate espionage in copying this. You need the scientific and engineering knowledge to make this happen. This rhetoric of corporate espionage is coming from the minds of people who don't know squat about manufacturing.
ASML followed a certain direction to produce these EUV machines. China is probably pursuing a different direction or even a new paradigm. A new paradigm will be free from any legacy compatibility. And might prove groundbreaking.
That's funny you mention that when there direct proof of a firm doing corporate espionage on ASML and their supply chain. It take a lot of engineering even with corporate espionage. This has been proven in European courts. There's no point in pretending it's not real, it's been proven.
BS again (ASML directly denies it, it's a never ending propaganda against China), read this and don't let your personal feelings towards the Chinese get into the way of good analysis:
https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2019/asml-disagrees-with-implication-of-chinese-espionage
Remember there is no amount of corporate espionage that make you build an EUV machine. Wake the hell up, you think they can the suppliers and the expertise by stealing a digital blue print and then 3D print an EUV machine? Please.
Funny you link the thing about them not wanting to lable the Chinese company ad Chinese corporate espionage because they want to play nice with the Chinese government. Here's a quote fr their latest annual report.
"Early in 2021, we became aware of reports that a company associated with XTAL Inc., against which ASML had obtained a damage award for trade secret misappropriation in 2019 in the USA, was actively marketing products in China that could potentially infringe on ASML’s IP rights"
2021 Annual Report - https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2021
They are committing corporate espionage. Obviously you can't build it with just internal data about the tools... But it does help. And it accelerates their plans greatly to decade rather than decades
I looked at the report and it's the same thing they said in their press statement. They're not accusing "CHINA", they say potentially some companies might infringe on some patents. It's consistent with what they said before.
And what's up with when a company of Chinese origin is accused of something we all say it's China but when an American company is accused of something we just isolate it to that company.
Dylan, don't let your original programming of whatever perception about China from you upbringing and entourage get in the way of very good analysis. You're a smart man, you can exceed your original programming. Or I could be wrong and that it's hard wired in you (what I call terminal phase) and there is no way but keep on doubling and tripling down on your perception.
Think outside the box.
If it is comparable to TSMC 7nm node, isn’t it also comparable to Intel 10nm? Why is it better than everything made in the USA? Also, do you have transistor densities, or performance numbers?
There are no foundry Intel 10nm or Intel 7 process node based chips commercially available. The most advanced commercial available foundry process in the US or Europe is GlobalFoundries 12nm.
Densities I have, but it's behind the TechInsights paywall.
Intel Cannon Lake chips is 10nm which came out in May 2018 and discontinued February 28, 2020, which was replaced by 10nm Ice Lake chips in September 2019. And then 10nm Tiger Lake chips and 10nm Alder Lake chips in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Maybe get your information right before posting. And Intel 10 transistor density is around 100. SMIC N+2 so-called 7nm is around the same transistor density. Also, I suggest check your information before posting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannon_Lake_(microprocessor)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Lake_(microprocessor)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Lake
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alder_Lake
None of those chips are *foundry*. They are IDM.
I specifically used the words *foundry* and *commercially available*
Read more carefully before talking about chips we have written about and analyzed in detail that are not *foundry*
Intel 10nm node based chips are literally on the shelf for sell right now so how is it not "commercially available"?
Like you said Intel is an Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM) so they design and manufacture. How do you think Intel produced those CPU chips? They don't not outsourced their CPU chip production to pure play foundries like GlobalFoundries, TSMC, SMIC. They produce using their own foundries which means if there are 10nm node Intel CPU chips for sell now, they must have a foundry making 10nm node chips. And those Intel foundries are literally in Arizona. The only thing you can say is Intel has not offered its 10nm node foundry process to outside fabless clients.
You literally just answered it. It's IDM. The article specifically says *foundry*.
Intel Arizona is making chips for internal designs, not any foundry designs that are commercially available. In the future they hope to, but doesn't exist today. As such the most advanced commercially available foundry process is 1. TSMC, 2. Samsung, 3. SMIC, 4. Global Foundries.
Foundry means you make other companies designs. Intel isn't doing that today on their 10nm/7 process, or at least for commercially available chips.
The industry usually qualifies those fabs who only manufacture for others with "pure play".