Nvidia is a leader and visionary in the industry, but their stock price has ran far ahead of the business fundamentals. Their current stock price shows eerie similarities to other bubbles that came before!
Banks and retail investors are over-extrapolating outsized growth.
Good read, thank you. For someone looking at the 5-10 year horizon, the parts where you talk about their vision and product quality and such resonates most, and you seem to think they are well positioned to stay a leader in the longer term.
Thanks for this - great read. Question, if you don't mind - much of the stock price appreciation took place after investor day (and subsequent broker upgrades, as you cited) where they unveiled Grace / showed the potential to accelerate compute growth with CPU + GPU integration v GPU alone. Looking at Intel's datacenter business, how it's evolved over the past decades, why can't Nvidia generate $50bn from the datacenter market over time? Could this not explain the stock price appreciation, as opposed to the split? Any thoughts would be appreciated!
Loved the readwould love to see a similar analysis of ASML - similarly love the name and their market power is high, but current valuations seem a bit stretched